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Christmas in July: the festive decisions that make or break December takings

Ed O'Brien10 July 20268 min read
Overhead flat-lay of a summer café table with a notebook of festive plans, a hamper basket, ribbon and a flat white in warm July light

December is the best month of the year in most cafés. It's also the month you have the least time to think, which is exactly why the good ones are decided in July.

Seventeen Decembers have taught me the same lesson every time. The years that went well weren't the ones where I hustled harder in December. They were the ones I'd quietly sorted in the summer, while the shop was quiet and I still had the headspace to do the maths.

So here's what to be dealing with now, in the sunshine, while Christmas feels like someone else's problem.

Your festive suppliers close their order books before you think

The uncomfortable truth about seasonal stock is that the decisions get made a long way in advance, and not by you.

Panettone, specialist chocolate, mince pie ingredients, festive packaging, branded cups, gift boxes, ribbon - a lot of it is made to order or brought in from abroad, and wholesalers plan their festive ranges months ahead. Order books for the seasonal lines tend to close in early autumn, sometimes with a minimum spend attached, and once they're shut they're shut.

If you wait until November to decide what your festive offer looks like, you'll be building it out of whatever's left rather than what you actually wanted.


Hampers and gift lines: decide the SKUs now, cost them properly

Hampers and gift boxes are lovely money. They're also where I've watched good operators quietly lose margin, because a hamper feels like a premium product so nobody checks whether it actually is one.

Decide the range now. Two or three fixed hampers at clear price points beats an infinite "build your own" that nobody can cost or pack quickly on a busy Saturday. Then cost each one like the recipe it is:

  • The contents - every jar, bag and bar, at what you actually pay
  • The packaging - the basket, box, shred, ribbon, cellophane, label. This adds up faster than people expect
  • The labour - someone spends real, paid minutes assembling and wrapping each one

Add all three, look at the price you want to charge, and check the margin honestly before you commit. A £45 hamper that costs you £34 by the time it's wrapped is not the earner it looks like. The same discipline applies to any festive retail line, and it's worth reading how to think about turning shelf space into real margin with retail beans, bakes and merch before you fill the counter with tinsel.

If it helps to run the numbers on a hamper the way you'd cost a dish, our free recipe costing calculator will do the maths on contents, packaging and labour in one place. No signup, no email.


Cost the festive menu before you print it, not after

Every café has a festive menu - the mince pie and mulled something, the Christmas sandwich, the seasonal cake. And every year the temptation is to reprint last year's board with the prices bumped by a round pound.

Don't. Last year's prices are simply wrong now. A year of food inflation has moved butter, flour, dried fruit and cream, and the gap between what a festive item cost you last December and what it costs this December is exactly the margin that goes missing without you noticing.

Cost each festive item fresh against today's ingredient prices before the board gets printed. It takes an afternoon in July. Discovering in mid-December that your bestselling Christmas cake slice has been running at a 40% margin all along takes a lot longer to recover from, and by then the season's gone.


Group bookings live or die on the deposit policy you set today

December is booking season. Tables of twelve for the office lunch, the mums' group, the choir, the family reunion. Wonderful, until three of them don't show and you've turned away walk-ins to hold the table.

A deposit policy set calmly in July saves you the awkward conversation in December. Decide the size party that triggers a deposit, how much per head, and whether it's redeemable against the bill or forfeited on a late cancellation. Put it in writing on the booking confirmation so nobody's surprised. The point of a deposit isn't to punish anyone - it's to make a no-show cost the customer something, so they actually ring to cancel and free the table.

There's a cash flow bonus too. Deposits taken in November and early December land in your account before the expensive festive stock bills do, which is genuinely helpful in the one month you're buying heavily.


December is peak gift card season, so plan the push now

Gift cards are the closest thing hospitality has to free money, and Christmas is when people actually buy them. Someone stuck for a present will happily hand you £25 today for coffee and cake you'll serve them slowly across January and February.

That's the quiet magic of it. The cash arrives now, the cost of fulfilling it lands later, and a meaningful slice never gets redeemed at all. But it only works if you plan the push before the rush - a stack of cards by the till, a line on the menu, staff who actually mention them, and a display that makes them an easy grab-and-go gift.

Two things to keep straight, both covered in more depth in the piece on how gift cards and vouchers affect café cash flow and margin. First, that cash is a liability until it's spent, not profit - lovely for cash flow, but don't spend it twice. Second, a café gift card that can be used on anything across a mixed menu is what HMRC calls a multi-purpose voucher, which generally means the VAT falls due when it's redeemed rather than when you sell it. Worth a two-minute chat with your accountant so the timing doesn't catch you out in January.


The office-party enquiries start in early autumn

The corporate stuff moves earlier than the retail stuff. Office managers start ringing round for the December team lunch or the client drinks in September and October, and they book whoever answers the question "what can you do for twenty people on a Thursday" with a clear, confident number.

If you're still working that number out when they call, you've lost them. Have a costed festive offer ready to send - a fixed per-head menu or two, minimum numbers, the deposit terms, and a margin you've actually checked rather than a price you plucked out of the air. Corporate December bookings are some of the best-margin work a café gets all year, and the full playbook for landing them sits in the guide to catering and corporate orders as extra margin.


Your July festive checklist

If you do nothing else this month, do these:

  • Confirm seasonal supplier orders before the festive books close in early autumn
  • Lock your hamper range to two or three fixed SKUs and cost each one to the ribbon
  • Re-cost the festive menu against today's prices before anything gets printed
  • Write your deposit policy for large bookings and put it on every confirmation
  • Prep the gift card push - stock, display, till prompt, and staff who mention it
  • Draft a costed corporate offer so you can reply to the first enquiry in minutes, not days

None of this is glamorous, and none of it feels urgent in July. That's precisely why it works. The operators who have a calm, profitable December are the ones who did the boring thinking while everyone else was enjoying the summer trade. Sort it now, and December gets to be the good month it should be, instead of the one you survive.


Ed O'Brien has run Hunters Cake Company for 17 years across cafés in Witney, Burford, and a bakery in Carterton, Oxfordshire. He's building Brikly - modular tools that give independent café owners the same data the big chains have, without the big chain price tag.

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