The Weekly Grind: AI & Tech News for Cafe Owners - 9 November 2026
Every week, we round up the most interesting AI and technology news that matters for independent cafe and coffee shop owners. No jargon, no hype - just what you need to know and why it matters for your business.
Two of this week's five stories are about costs that have not reached most invoices yet, and the Bank of England has set out why. On Thursday it announced its first rise in Bank Rate since August 2023, to 4%, and its minutes judge that the hedging, fixed-price contracts and thinner margins shielding many firms are "for the most part" temporary, and that the costs behind them could reach consumer prices if the energy shock persists. The index of what hospitality pays for food and drink shows some of it arriving already, with prices up 0.9% in September, the fourth monthly rise in a row. The Visitor Levy Bill was introduced on Wednesday, and the 5% in the coverage is a promise from ten mayors, not a national cap. And two sets of numbers put a measure on AI: the government's adoption survey has 23% of hotel and catering businesses with five or more staff using it, and Uber set around 500 orders placed by AI agents on Uber Eats beside the roughly 320 million trips it handled in its Halloween week.
The Bank of England Raises Rates to 4%, Its First Rise Since 2023
The Bank says firms' hedges and fixed prices will, for the most part, prove temporary, so list every price you pay that is fixed and when it ends.
The Bank of England Raised Rates on Thursday for the First Time Since August 2023, to 4% - Its Minutes Say That, for the Most Part, Firms' Buffers Against the Energy Shock "Would Only Prove Temporary", and Its Staff See Shop Food Inflation Reaching About 4.75% by Mid-2027
On Thursday 5 November the Bank of England announced that its Monetary Policy Committee, at a meeting that ended the day before, had "voted by a majority of 8-1 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%". The one dissenter, Catherine Mann, wanted 4.25%. It is the first rise since 3 August 2023, when the rate went to 5.25%, according to the Bank's own record of rate changes; the last change before Thursday was a cut to 3.75% last December. The reason is in the opening lines of the Bank's summary and minutes: "The conflict in the Middle East is now in its ninth month. Global energy prices have continued to rise from an already elevated level." Over the 15 working days to 27 October, Brent crude averaged $108 a barrel and UK gas 216p a therm, 38% and 81% higher than at the time of the Bank's July forecast. Inflation was 3.5% in September, around 1 percentage point of it from direct energy effects, mostly fuels, and the Bank now expects it to reach "around 5% by the middle of next year". The Committee does not agree on what comes next. Huw Pill wrote that "a single 25-basis point hike is unlikely to be sufficient"; Alan Taylor wrote that "as of now, this is not the start of a hiking cycle" and called the rise "a risk-management 'one-for-now' insurance hike". The next decision is on 17 December.
The part written about businesses is the part to read. "Although many firms were already facing higher prices for oil and refined products, some had not yet seen large rises in gas or electricity prices owing to hedging or longer-term fixed-price contracts. Agency intelligence suggested that many firms were also absorbing higher costs partly through lower profit margins." Then the Committee's judgement: "The Committee judged that, for the most part, firms' buffers would only prove temporary and that these cost pressures could eventually pass through into higher consumer prices if the energy shock persisted." The next sentence gives the opposite risk: "There was, however, a risk that firms' resilience to the energy shock would not last, instead resulting in weaker demand and then limiting firms' pricing power." The Monetary Policy Report published alongside the decision names our sector: "Higher energy and food prices are expected to increase non-labour costs for many firms in the services sector, including airlines, hospitality and leisure services." And it says when the buffers run out: "As fixed-price contracts and hedging arrangements expire, the impact of higher energy prices on firms' costs is expected to become more widespread."
On food, the minutes say "food inflation had remained lower than expected earlier in the year", and the report's section on food explains why the Bank expects that to change: "as firms' hedges expire and new purchasing cycles for fertiliser and other agricultural inputs begin, input costs are expected to rise more materially". Food price inflation was 1.3% in September; Bank staff expect it "to rise to a little under 3% in 2027 Q1" and then to around 4.75% by mid-2027. Separately, intelligence from contacts of the Bank's Agents suggests the current El Niño "could begin affecting UK food price inflation from early 2027, initially through prices of fresh products, such as fruit and vegetables". These are shop prices, what your customers pay at the supermarket, not what a cafe pays its wholesaler, and the report records a counterweight: contacts of the Bank's Agents in the supermarket sector "expect that competitive pressures may limit the rise in food price inflation in 2027". The Budget measures, on the Bank's estimate, take about a quarter of a percentage point off inflation by the second quarter of 2027.
What this means for you: The rate rise itself is the smaller part, and what it costs you is our reasoning, not something the Bank says about cafes. On our arithmetic, a quarter of a point is £50 a year for every £20,000 you owe at a variable rate, and nothing on a fixed-rate loan or a hire purchase deal at fixed monthly instalments until it ends. Two kinds of borrowing deserve a look. An overdraft that never gets back to zero is, as our borrowing guide puts it, "a loan at overdraft rates", so find out what rate yours is charged at and whether it moves with Bank Rate. And if you are about to finance a machine, our lease-or-buy guide explains why a quoted "flat rate" often works out at an APR close to double.
The bigger part is the sentence about buffers, because some of the firms it describes are the ones that supply you. That is our reading, not the Bank's, but it gives you a job. Make a list of every price you pay that is currently fixed: your energy contract, and any agreed price with your roaster, dairy, bakery supplier or wholesaler. For each one, write down when it ends or is next reviewed, and ask the supplier what the price is tied to. Our energy guide says to note when a fixed deal ends and "set a reminder to review 8-12 weeks before", and the gas forecasts we covered in October are the reason to do it this winter rather than next spring. When a rise does arrive, our guide to pushing back on supplier increases builds its advice around your top 10 ingredients by spend. And keep the Bank's own caveat in mind: it also sees a risk that firms' resilience gives way to weaker demand, "limiting firms' pricing power", so do not build next year's plan on a price rise you are not sure will stick.
What Hospitality Pays for Food and Drink Rose 0.9% in September
Cooking oils, bakery and sugar led a fourth monthly rise in a row, so check those invoice lines against what you paid in June.
What Hospitality Pays for Food and Drink Rose 0.9% in September, the Fourth Monthly Rise in a Row - Cooking Oils, Bakery and Sugar Led, Poultry and Pork Softened, and the Release Says Nothing About Coffee, Tea or Milk
The Bank's food projections are shop prices. The nearest published measure of what hospitality pays is the Foodservice Price Index from Prestige Purchasing and NIQ, and its September reading, published by NIQ on 3 November, says: "Food and drink prices into hospitality rose by 0.9% month-on-month in September". In July we covered June's 1.8% rise, which came after a fractional fall in May. Prestige's own news page shows the index then rose 0.2% in July and 0.4% in August, so September is the fourth rise in a row and the biggest since June. On our arithmetic, the four together come to about 3.3% since May.
The release says where it came from: "Cooking oils, bakery products and sugar-led categories of the Index all rose month-on-month, mirroring global market benchmarks that have reacted to adverse weather in key growing regions and logistical disruptions in the Black Sea." Fresh produce is next. As kitchens rely more on imports through the winter, "the lingering effects of the summer's prolonged hot and dry conditions across Europe are becoming apparent, particularly through reduced yields in staple crops like potatoes and onions", and seafood "remains structurally inflationary". The one soft spot: "there was marginal relief in the meat and poultry sector, as poultry and pork markets softened". Shaun Allen, Prestige's chief executive, said the rise "demonstrates that inflationary momentum is steadily building as we head into the winter", and that "The significant rise in crude oil prices over the last month is already beginning to inflate transport and packaging costs". Reuben Pullan of NIQ said the rise "will squeeze operators' margins even tighter and force them to look again at menu prices."
The release has three limits. It gives no year-on-year figure and no percentage for any category, so it tells you the direction for oils, bakery and sugar but not the size. It does not mention coffee, tea or milk at all; for dairy, where wholesale prices have gone the other way, see the butter and cream guide we published on Thursday. And Prestige describes itself as a specialist "in procurement and supply chain management", so Allen's advice, "Now is the time for procurement teams to act proactively, locking in supply and hedging", comes from a procurement specialist and is addressed to procurement teams.
What this means for you: As our July piece said of the same index, "A national index is a hypothesis about your kitchen, not a fact about it". This month's hypothesis is specific enough to test in ten minutes. Pull your latest invoices for cooking oil, bought-in bread and bakes, sugar, potatoes and onions, and put each price beside what you paid in June. If a line has moved, re-cost the dishes and bakes that use it in the free recipe costing tool. If it has not, your supplier may be holding its price or may not have passed the rise on yet, which is the Bank's story about buffers seen from your side of the counter, so it belongs on the list of fixed prices from the story above. Our recipe cost staleness audit is the fuller version of this check, and its warning is the reason to do it: headline food inflation "is a supermarket shelf index built for households", and the only prices that tell you what your menu costs are the ones on your own invoices. If you buy from a cash-and-carry, there is nothing to hedge, but you can still ask your wholesaler whether a price is fixed until a date, and get the answer in writing.
The Visitor Levy Bill Is Introduced, and Its 5% Is a Promise From Mayors
Accommodation providers collect it and day visitors do not pay it; if your area could bring one in, its consultation is where you get a say on the rate.
The Visitor Levy Bill Was Introduced on Wednesday, and Its 5% Is a Promise From Ten Mayors, Not a National Cap - Accommodation Providers Collect It, Day Visitors Do Not Pay It, and the Government Says Local People and Businesses Must Be Consulted First
In May we covered the King's Speech promise of a levy on overnight stays. On Wednesday 4 November the Bill itself was introduced in the Commons, and the government's announcement sets out how it will work. A levy will be "charged as a percentage rate of the cost of accommodation, rather than as a flat fee", and "will only apply to the first 28 consecutive days of a stay". "Hotels and other accommodation providers will be responsible for accounting for and paying the levy." Student accommodation, care homes, children's homes and school boarding houses are exempt nationally, and local leaders can add limited local exemptions, "like for camping pitches".
Then the number in every report: "Ten mayors have also committed that any levy introduced in their areas would be no higher than 5%, providing certainty for visitors and businesses while preserving local choice." That is a commitment by those mayors, not a national cap. The Caterer describes the Bill as enabling "an uncapped fee on overnight stays", and the government's response to its consultation says: "The government does not intend to set a cap on the visitor levy rate, however, this is a finely balanced issue and government will continue to consider the case for doing so." Its reasoning is that a national cap could end up "operating as a default rate regardless of local market conditions", although 706 of the 1,223 responses, 58%, had agreed the government should put a cap on the maximum rate. The power goes to every mayoral and foundation strategic authority, and in a foundation authority, which has no mayor, "a levy can only go ahead with unanimous support". The mayors quoted in the announcement include Steve Rotheram of the Liverpool City Region, who said "A modest levy on overnight stays could potentially raise up to £18m a year", and David Skaith of York and North Yorkshire, who said he would be "introducing a Levy in our county".
Before charging, an authority must "publish a draft plan and an impact assessment setting out the expected impact on the local economy, businesses and visitors, alongside the proposed rate, threshold, exemptions and how the money will be spent", then consult local people and businesses, consider their views and publish the responses. The announcement's examples of what the money could pay for are "public toilets and parks, cultural events and security and destination promotion". UKHospitality's chief executive, Allen Simpson, said, as The Caterer reported, that mayors "will be able to introduce an uncapped holiday tax on Brits and then spend the funds on whatever they like, with no legal requirements to even use the funds to benefit hospitality". The consultation response, written before the Bill was introduced, gave this timetable: "Subject to Parliamentary approval, we expect local leaders to be able to set out plans for how revenues will be invested by March 2028." The 33,000 jobs figure is back in this week's coverage: The Caterer attributes it to Oxford Economics analysis of a 5% levy, and we reported the same figure in May.
What this means for you: You will not collect this levy, and a customer who comes for the day will not pay it, because it falls on the room. Explaining how it grouped respondents, the consultation response says that the wider hospitality sector, "such as restaurants, pubs, entertainment and event spaces", "has a direct relationship with the visitors to an area, but will not all directly interact with the levy", which is the nearest the response gets to a business like yours; cafes are not named. Our tourist-season guide is written for the honeypot town where most summer customers visit once, and the day-tripper is outside the levy altogether. Where it could reach you is through the overnight guest, and that is our reasoning, not anything the government or UKHospitality has measured for cafes. On our arithmetic, 5% on a £120-a-night room is £6 a night, or £12 for a two-night weekend, and whether that changes where a family stays is the question each authority's impact assessment will have to answer.
The part you can influence is the consultation. The government does not currently intend to set a national cap, so under its plans the rate is set locally, and an authority has to consult and consider the responses before it takes a final decision. In the government's own consultation, 365 of the 1,223 responses came from the accommodation and bookings sectors and their representative bodies, and 114 from the wider hospitality and tourism sector and other businesses. So find out whether your council is part of a mayoral or foundation strategic authority, and if it is, watch for the draft plan. When it comes, say what your trade depends on, and ask what the money will pay for and whether any of it reaches your high street. The powers are for authorities in England; Scotland and Wales have their own schemes.
The Government's Survey Puts AI Use in Hotels and Catering at 23%
Among businesses with five or more staff, 73% of hotels and catering neither use AI nor plan to, so if you have not started, you are with most of your sector.
The Government's AI Survey Puts Hotels and Catering at 23% Using AI, Up From 11% a Year Earlier - 73% Neither Use It Nor Plan To, and Among Those That Do, 61% Say No More Than a Tenth of Their Staff Use It
On Thursday 29 October the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology published its second AI Adoption Survey. BMG Research interviewed 3,503 businesses with five or more employees by phone between 7 January and 21 April 2026, and the headline is that "in 2026 one-third of UK businesses were using at least one AI technology (32% compared to 16% in 2025)". The detail is in the full report. By size, 27% of businesses with five to nine employees used AI, up from 14%, and 34% of those with 10 to 49, up from 16%. Hotels and catering, section I of the standard industrial classification, which covers accommodation and food service, rose from 11% to 23%, the lowest of the ten sectors in its chart, a point below transport and storage. And "Businesses neither using nor having plans to use AI were most common within hotel/catering (73% vs. 88% in 2025)", followed by transport and storage, construction and retail, with businesses in those four sectors "more likely to perceive AI as irrelevant to their organisation".
Among the hotel and catering businesses that do use AI, use is thin. Only 4% said more than half their staff use it, and 61% said no more than a tenth do. They were also the most likely of any sector to say they were not ready to use more of it, at 23%. One small hotel and catering business described how it spreads: "Some of my staff all know how to use it, then they would just implement it and show me...we don't have to go through a process." Across all sectors, among businesses using AI, "For the majority (64%) it had had no impact" on operating costs; 22% saw a slight reduction, 2% a significant one, and 9% said their costs had gone up. Across all sectors, the barriers users chose most often were "limited skills, expertise or knowledge in using AI (67%), and limited knowledge of how AI could help the business (64%)". Among all businesses neither using nor planning to use AI, the commonest answer was that there was no clear business case or proven return on investment for their organisation, at 65%.
In October we ran the Office for National Statistics' count, which on our arithmetic put AI use among accommodation and food businesses at about 18% in September. The two surveys ask different questions of different samples at different times, and this one leaves out businesses with fewer than five staff, yet they land close together: about 18% on the ONS's figures, which carry a wide margin, and 23% on this one. And in the government survey, most hotel and catering businesses that use AI say no more than a tenth of their staff do.
What this means for you: If you have not used AI in your business, you are with most of your sector, not behind it: 73% of hotel and catering businesses neither use it nor plan to. That is not an argument against trying it, and the top reason that non-users across all sectors gave, no clear business case, is the right test to apply. In August we called the 60% of UK SMEs who told Capify that AI had so far had minimal positive impact "the most reassuring statistic you will read all month", and the 64% of AI users here reporting no change in operating costs points the same way, though it measures costs rather than overall impact, and 24% did report lower costs. If you do want to try it, start where most businesses using or planning AI say they use it or plan to, administration, which 81% of them named. Our suggestion is to pick one job you already do every week, such as replying to reviews or drafting a supplier email, and see whether it saves you time; the survey's own hotel case study uses ChatGPT for review responses. Our guide to what AI actually does for a cafe has a list of what works, from invoice scanning to the simple chatbot that answers "what time do you close?", and a list of what is still hype for most independents.
Uber and DoorDash Put a Number on AI Agent Orders
Around 500 on Uber Eats and maybe several hundred on DoorDash, so do not pay for anything sold as getting your cafe ready for AI agents.
Uber Set Around 500 AI Agent Orders on Uber Eats Beside About 320 Million Trips in Its Halloween Week, and DoorDash Says Maybe "Several Hundred" in Total From Third-Party Agents - Two Delivery Platforms Have Now Put a Number on AI Agent Ordering
On Wednesday 4 November, on Uber's third-quarter results call, an analyst asked about AI agents, the assistants such as Meta's Muse that can place an order on someone's behalf. Uber's finance chief, Balaji Krishnamurthy, answered with numbers, according to a transcript of the call: "we had one of our largest weeks last week because it was Halloween. So we did just around 320 million trips on Uber and Uber Eats. The volumes coming from AI agents for Uber Eats were around 500 orders total. And for our rides business, it was a grand total of four trips that we fulfilled from agents. So it is very, very early and very limited traction that we have seen so far." NRN, carrying Restaurant Business's report, took the 500 as that week's figure; the transcript does not state the period outright. On our arithmetic, 500 orders is about one and a half for every million trips Uber handled that week, though the 320 million mixes rides with food and was, by Uber's own account, one of its biggest weeks.
A week earlier DoorDash had given its own figure. Its chief executive, Tony Xu, told analysts on its results call, as TechCrunch reported, that "you never want to fight gravity. But at the same time, you don't want to be delusional", and that "if you look at where AI agents are today, we're seeing maybe several hundred orders in total from some of these third-party agents". TechCrunch set that against the average of 3 million deliveries a day DoorDash reported for 2025. In March, the same Tony Xu said he viewed agents "very much as almost like the new forms of the Googles".
Neither company is shutting agents out. Uber's chief executive, Dara Khosrowshahi, said that "every single AI system company is talking to us, and we're really now negotiating the terms of trade", and that he had "counted now there are eight different assistants". But both want customers ordering in their own apps, and both are building their own AI there. Khosrowshahi said "early signal shows that baskets that you build with a Cart Assistant", Uber's own in-app assistant, "are roughly twice the average of the average basket".
What this means for you: Do not pay for anything sold as getting your cafe ready for AI agents. On the two platforms' own figures, agents have placed very few orders: DoorDash's chief executive said maybe several hundred in total from third-party agents, and Uber's finance chief put the Uber Eats figure at around 500. The advice from March and July still stands: keep your menu clean, accurate and current, because "An AI assistant can only sell what it can read". But the AI already reading your menu is mostly inside the apps. Just Eat's voice assistant has been recommending restaurants and dishes to UK customers since the winter, Uber is building its own, and the orders they send you carry the platform's commission. That is a reason to keep your delivery listing tidy, and to keep doing what our delivery guide recommends, a card in the bag with a QR code to your own website or click-and-collect, because an order placed directly with you carries no commission, whoever or whatever placed it. And keep the sense of proportion our AI guide asks for. In September we said a basic chatbot that answers "do you take bookings?" is still worth more to a cafe with twelve tables than any of this, and this week's numbers make that truer, not less true.
The Brikly Take
Most of what moved this week has not reached your till yet, and the useful question in each story is when it will. The Bank of England judges that hedges, fixed prices and thinner margins are, for the most part, temporary buffers, and that the costs behind them could eventually reach consumer prices if the energy shock persists; its staff expect shop food inflation to reach around 4.75% by the middle of next year. The foodservice index says some of that is already arriving in hospitality, in oils, bakery and sugar. Under the government's plans, a visitor levy could not be charged until an authority had published a plan, consulted on it and decided, and before the Bill the government said it expected local leaders to be able to set out spending plans by March 2028, subject to Parliament. And on AI agents, which this column has covered since March, Uber's count was around 500 Uber Eats orders, a figure it gave beside the 320 million trips of its Halloween week. For a cafe, the difference between "coming" and "here" shows up first in one place: the invoice.
Three jobs for this week: list every price you pay that is fixed and the date it ends, check this autumn's invoices for oil, bought-in bakery, sugar, potatoes and onions against June's, and find out whether your council is part of a strategic authority that could bring in a visitor levy.
The Weekly Grind is published every Monday by Brikly - modular intelligence tools for independent cafe and coffee shop owners. Got a story we should cover? Get in touch ->
Ed O'Brien has run Hunters Cake Company for 17 years across cafes in Witney, Burford, and a bakery in Carterton, Oxfordshire. He's building Brikly - modular tools that give independent cafe owners the same data the big chains have, without the big chain price tag.